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6. Even if developments in generative artificial intelligence (AI) slow as the current model reaches the limits of the human-generated material it feeds on, international regulation and data protection will likely continue to lag behind. The use of AI-enabled surveillance, such as facial recognition, against activists is likely to increase and become more normalized. The challenge of disinformation is likely to intensify, particularly around conflicts and elections.
Several tech leaders have actively taken the side of right-wing populists and authoritarians, putting their platforms and wealth at the service of their political ambitions. Emerging alternative social media platforms offer some promise but are likely to face similar problems as they grow.
7. Climate change, conflict, economic strife, repression of LGBTQI+ identities, and civil and political repression will continue to drive displacement and migration. Most migrants will remain in difficult and underfunded conditions in Global South countries. In the Global North, right-wing shifts are expected to drive more restrictive and repressive policies, including the deportation of migrants to countries where they may be at risk. Attacks on civil society working to defend their rights, including by assisting at sea and land borders, are also likely to intensify.
8. The backlash against women’s and LGBTQI+ rights will continue. The US right wing will continue to fund anti-rights movements in the Global South, notably in Commonwealth African countries, while European conservative groups will continue to export their anti-rights campaigns, as some Spanish organizations have long done throughout Latin America. Disinformation efforts from multiple sources, including Russian state media, will continue to influence public opinion. This will leave civil society largely on the defensive, focused on consolidating gains and preventing setbacks.
9. As a result of these trends, the ability of civil society organizations and activists to operate freely will remain under pressure in the majority of countries. Just when its work is most needed, civil society will face growing restrictions on fundamental civic freedoms, including in the form of anti-NGO laws and laws that label civil society as agents of foreign powers, the criminalization of protests and increasing threats to the safety of activists and journalists. Civil society will have to devote more of its resources to protecting its space, at the expense of the resources available to promote and advance rights.
10. Despite these many challenges, civil society will continue to strive on all fronts. It will continue to combine advocacy, protests, online campaigns, strategic litigation and international diplomacy. As awareness grows of the interconnected and transnational nature of the challenges, it will emphasize solidarity actions that transcend national boundaries and make connections between different struggles in different contexts.
Even in difficult circumstances, civil society achieved some notable victories in 2024. In the Czech Republic, civil society’s efforts led to a landmark reform of rape laws, and in Poland they resulted in a lawmaking emergency contraception available without prescription, overturning previous restrictive legislation. After extensive civil society advocacy, Thailand led the way in Southeast Asia by passing a marriage equality law, while Greece became the first predominantly Christian Orthodox country to legalize same-sex marriage.
People defended democracy. In South Korea, people took to the streets in large numbers to resist martial law, while in Bangladesh, protest action led to the ousting of a long-standing authoritarian government. In Guatemala, a president committed to fighting corruption was sworn in after civil society organized mass protests to demand that powerful elites respect the election results, and in Venezuela, hundreds of thousands organized to defend the integrity of the election, defeated the authoritarian government in the polls and took to the streets in the face of severe repression when the results weren’t recognized. In Senegal, civil society mobilized to prevent an attempt to postpone an election that resulted in an opposition win.
Civil society won victories in climate and environmental litigation — including in Ecuador, India and Switzerland — to force governments to recognize the human rights impacts of climate change and do more to reduce emissions and curb pollution. Civil society also took to the courts to pressure governments to stop arms sales to Israel, with a successful verdict in the Netherlands and others pending.
In 2025, the struggle continues. Civil society will keep carrying the torch of hope that a more peaceful, just, equal and sustainable world is possible. This idea will remain as important as the tangible impact we’ll continue to achieve despite the difficult circumstances.
Andrew Firmin and Inés M. Pousadela are the editor-in-chief and senior research specialist, respectively, at Civicus: World Alliance for Citizen Participation.
